top of page

To see all AFR news click here

News & Media

Early Climate Indicators Point Toward Elevated Australian Bushfire Risk for 2026/27

May 18
3 min read

Australia’s emergency management sector is already beginning preparations for what could become a challenging 2026/27 bushfire season, with multiple national and international forecasting agencies warning of developing climate conditions associated with increased fire risk.


While Australia’s official summer bushfire outlook for 2026/27 has not yet been released, recent forecasting data from the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), AFAC (Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council), the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA), NOAA and other climate monitoring organisations are pointing toward the growing possibility of hotter and drier conditions developing across large parts of the country later in 2026 and into 2027.


A key concern is the potential development of an El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean during the second half of 2026.

According to the Bureau of Meteorology, sea surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific have been progressively warming, with long-range climate models increasingly indicating a possible shift toward El Niño conditions later this year.



BoM noted in its recent climate update that while forecast confidence remains variable this far in advance, current trends are significant enough to warrant close monitoring by emergency planners and fire authorities.

“While models suggest a possible shift to El Niño later this year, its timing and strength is less certain,” BoM stated in its April 2026 outlook update.


Historically, El Niño patterns have been associated with:• Reduced rainfall across eastern and southern Australia• Above-average temperatures• Increased drought conditions• Lower soil moisture• Elevated bushfire danger

Recent reporting from ABC News highlighted that climate scientists are increasingly concerned about the possibility of an intensified El Niño event developing during late 2026, potentially contributing to widespread heat extremes, drought and increased bushfire conditions across Australia.


The AFAC Seasonal Bushfire Outlook released earlier this year has already identified elevated fire potential across several regions of the country.


The Autumn 2026 Outlook identified heightened risk areas across:

• Southern, central and eastern New South Wales

• Large parts of Victoria

• Southeast South Australia

• Southern regions of Western Australia, including the Jarrah Forest and Esperance Plains regions


AFAC stated that long-term dryness, persistent rainfall deficiencies and underlying fuel conditions were contributing factors behind the increased outlook.


The National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) has also reinforced concerns surrounding elevated seasonal risk, highlighting the importance of ongoing preparedness and inter-agency coordination as Australia transitions toward the next high-risk weather period.


Additional climate monitoring from Weatherzone and international forecasting agencies suggests the likelihood of a rapid transition from neutral ENSO conditions toward El Niño later in the year is continuing to increase.


International climate modelling agencies including NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center in the United States have similarly warned of increasing probabilities of a moderate to potentially strong El Niño event forming by late 2026.


While forecasting uncertainty remains, climate analysts note that the combination of elevated ocean temperatures, long-term warming trends and reduced rainfall patterns could significantly increase fire weather potential across parts of Australia.

Beyond weather conditions alone, emergency management experts continue to highlight that bushfire risk is increasingly influenced by:

• Heavy fuel accumulation following previous wet years

• Expanding populations in bushland interface zones

• Longer fire seasons

• Increased operational pressure on emergency services

• More rapid fire spread during extreme weather conditions


Against this backdrop, agencies and private-sector emergency support operators are already moving into early preparation phases for the 2026/27 season. Airview Fire Recon confirmed it is currently expanding operational readiness and introducing additional aerial intelligence and reconnaissance capabilities ahead of the upcoming fire season.


The company stated that future fireground operations will increasingly rely on:

• Early detection capability

• Real-time aerial intelligence

• Live situational awareness

• Rapid information sharing between agencies

• Improved operational visibility during fast-moving incidents


Airview Fire Recon is currently preparing additional technology deployments designed to support emergency services, utilities, critical infrastructure operators and incident management teams during high-risk operational periods.The company noted that while technology alone is not a solution to bushfire risk, faster intelligence and improved situational awareness can significantly improve operational coordination, resource deployment and responder safety during rapidly evolving incidents.


Industry analysts continue to emphasise that preparedness for modern bushfire seasons can no longer begin at the onset of summer conditions.Instead, capability development, planning, intelligence integration and operational readiness are increasingly becoming year-round priorities for agencies operating within Australia’s evolving fire environment.


Additional References:

BoM Long-Range Climate Outlooks: https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/



 
 
 

Comments

bottom of page